Posted by Josh on September 25, 2009 under Sounders | 
This is a continuation from Part 1.
Picking up where I left off… I’m not convinced that summing the average result is particularly robust. One prime example of this being a flawed approach comes up when you get down to 1 or 2 games left. With 2 games left, you could perhaps have an average result of 5 points (2.5 points in each game for a heavily favored team), which is not even possible to obtain in 2 games. With 1 game, you might have an average result of 2 points, which actually shows up for quite a few games, but that is clearly an impossible result.
So, I feel the need for a more robust simulation, even if it may take more steps. Read more…
Posted by Josh on September 24, 2009 under Sounders |
Maybe it’s because I’ve been watching a lot of the TV show Numb3rs lately. Or maybe, now that the baseball season is (nearly) over I needed to better understand how likely the Sounders playoff chances are.
Either way, I was definitely feeling a missing piece regarding analysis of the remainder of the MLS season. Coolstandings.com does a good job of analyzing playoff odds for MLB, NBA, and NFL, but I’ve not found anything comparable for MLS. And I often feel at a loss when trying to describe whether the Sounders will make the playoffs. They currently stand at 5th overall, but with more games left to play for some teams than others, and the increased complexity of 3 possible results, it’s hard to get a good sense of the odds. It’s not quite as straightforward as seeing the Twins 2.5 games back of the Tigers with 10 games to go.
So, I built my own spreadsheet.
And so far, my analytical approach has proved useful. I estimated the Sounders playoff chances increased from 80% to 85% just based on Wednesday night’s draw between Colorado and San Jose.
Warning: the rest of this post includes lots of maths. That’s right, maths.
Read more…
Posted by Adrienne on September 22, 2009 under Photos |
While Pittsburgh is known for its location at the confluence of three rivers, it also has some steep hills and an interesting system of climbing them:
The Duquesne Incline is a fascinating conveyance: a box-like car which climbs a steep track straight up the hillside on the south side of the Monongahela River. It was opened to the public in 1877, and aside from the year 1963, has been operating ever since. You can see more information about the history of this historic transport system at the website of the Duquesne Incline Preservation Society here.
Unfortunately, we didn’t get to ride up the hill on the incline, but if we have a chance to go back to Pittsburgh, we will definitely put this on our list of things to do.
Posted by Josh on September 16, 2009 under Photos |
Waterfalls are always neat to see. This one in particular was a bit of a surprise in several ways. We found this one on our map of Cuyahoga Valley National Park, and thought we’d check it out. The first surprise was how, as we got closer to it, we found ourselves increasingly surrounded by suburbs rather than what we expect when we think “National Park.”
The second surprise was how hard it was to actually get to the falls. You’d think a beautiful waterfall nestled into a city neighborhood would be made accessible for those who would want to see it, but we had to circle around once or twice before we found the right street to turn down (and even nearly found ourselves on a highway).
After all the trouble and confusion finding the falls, I didn’t expect much out of the falls themselves, but what we found was definitely a pleasant surprise.
Posted by Adrienne on September 9, 2009 under Football, Packers, Photos, Seahawks |
With the start of the NFL season right around the corner, a photo from our summer visit to the Pro Football Hall of Fame seemed appropriate:
We took a lot of interesting pictures of the inside of the Hall of Fame during our visit, which you can see here. Both the Packers and the Seahawks were well represented, so we both had a good time. The exhibits were fascinating and there was a lot to see. If you’re a gridiron fan, consider putting Canton on your list of places to go – you won’t be disappointed!
